![]() ![]() Usually, the thesis I come away with is relatively similar to manager pitches, however, after doing my own research, I have come away far more bullish. I sourced the idea from 3 top European hedge funds as well as a global manager who was formally at TCI. This is where the blue sky scenario for Flutter could take us. Gambling simply becomes a part of the experience of watching sports, while online casino takes over the newly dangerous casinos. Picture a world where 25% of Americans are betting on sports, online gambling has doubled, and watching sports is now synonymous with casual wagering. These virtues have been demonstrated in the most competitive, regulated markets of the UK and Australia, where their execution over time has led to their status as a top brand. The bull case for Flutter is that it retains its ability to generate industry-leading margins while expanding globally, and continues to provide the best customer experience. There was an all time buying opportunity at the bottom in mid-March that I, unfortunately, missed tending to other parts of my portfolio. Just to illustrate a point, if we assume Fanduel = DraftKings in valuation, the core business is trading at <5x normalized EBITDA. However, I do still believe this to be a good opportunity despite shares being near all-time highs. Flutter is at a decent premium to fair value without the inclusion of its US business. Shouldn't Fanduel be at least equal to DraftKings? Answer, of course, yes, but it should be at a premium. ![]() But this type of difference in expectation level is how you make money.ĭraftKings ( DKNG), its closest peer, is currently valued at a lofty $6.5B and Fanduel has a much more powerful Flutter and soon to be ally NASDAQ: TSG/Foxbet in its back pocket. So you do have to have strong assumptions to create long-term upside. In my conservative base case assumption, Fanduel alone has 2% upside from today's prices versus the entire market cap of Flutter, assuming full ownership in 2026. I believe that Flutter ( OTCPK:PDYPY), ( OTCPK:PDYPF), (FLTR.LN) has potentially significant long-term upside, with minimal downside from current market prices and is rightfully holding up far better than peers during the market decline. ![]()
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